Hogs’ NCAA Chances Strong?

Arkansas’ hopes to make the NCAA Tournament seem to be slipping. Losers of five of their past seven games and an RPI ranking at 42, the Hogs seem to be in serious trouble of make their third consecutive NCAA bid.

The keyword there is “seem,” in case you didn’t notice.

Well, worry not Hog fans, says CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish. A win Saturday on Senior Day against Auburn, and you’re in the tournament.

On Wednesday I chatted with Gary, who has been pretty prolific at projecting the NCAA Tournament field in the past, and he thinks Arkansas fans’ Big Dance concerns should end Saturday evening with a win over the Tigers. He also says Arkansas could probably lose in their Friday second round game in the Southeastern Conference Tournament and still have a punched dance card come Sunday.

“There’s no reason to think they’re going to lose to Auburn at home,” Gary said. “That’s plenty good enough. It’s not even a question. We’re comparing them to Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, UAB, Ohio State, Ole Miss. Their resume is clearly better than those teams.

“As they relate to other teams that are on the bubble, they’re fine. They’re still 5-4 against the top 50. They’re still 8-5 against the top 100.”

Parrish and CBSSports.com’s Brian De Los Santos do a great job of breaking down teams on the bubble. And a quick glance at teams like Ohio State and UAB does shed some light on Gary’s thought process. The Hogs do look pretty strong against some of the other teams on the bubble.

Gary said fans and some analysts get too caught up in “mythical criteria” when making projections. For example, some fans think the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee compares teams within their conferences and, in some way subconsciously, sets a limit for how many teams from a conference should be allowed into the dance.

“Arkansas is competing with Ohio State, Illinois State and New Mexico for at-large bids as much as they are with Kentucky,” says Gary, a former Memphis Tigers basketball beat writer for the Memphis Commercial Appeal. “I think [conference numbers] have no real bearing on Arkansas. There’s no reason both (Arkansas and Kentucky) can’t get in. … or even Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss can all get in. After sitting here, Ohio State, UAB and Florida look like they’re going to get in and none of those have a body of work like Arkansas.”

Teams on the NCAA “bubble” this year are pretty weak, Parrish says. That should only help the Hogs come Selection Sunday.

“I don’t think it’ll be close. I don’t think [the selection committee] will be sitting there Sunday morning with Arkansas and three other schools to pick from.”

Gary can be read on CBSSports.com and on his blog, which he updates daily.

Here are some other bubblicious updates concerning the Hogs:

— ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Arkansas as a 12 seed facing Michigan State. The Razorbacks are one of his “last four in.”

— Will the SEC’s recent lack of advancement to the NCAA Tournament’s second round hurt Arkansas? ESPN’s Andy Glockner looks at the hard numbers.

— ESPN’s Andy Katz: Once-ranked Arkansas “appears” to be in the Big Dance.

Filed under: SEC Basketball, Arkansas Basketball, Uncategorized by Brandon Marcello. Posted on: March 7, 2008 at 3:00 pm